Endogenous Cycles in Optimal Monetary Policy with a Nonlinear Phillips Curve

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy with sticky prices a la Calvo and forward looking behavior. In this paper we extend this standard model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. As the linear Phillips curve may be questioned on theoretical grounds and seems not to be favoured by empirical evidence, a similar procedure has already been undertaken in a series papers over the last few years, e.g., Schaling (1999), Semmler and Zhang (2004), Nobay and Peel (2000), Tambakis (1999), and Dolado et al. (2004). However, these papers were mainly concerned with the analysis of the problem of inflation bias, by deriving an interest rate rule which is nonlinear, leaving the issues of stability and the possible existence of endogenous cycles in such a framework mostly overlooked. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for both convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into a fully deterministic structure of the standard model produces significant changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy in the standard model. We should emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable and chaotic fixed points (endogenous cycles); (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem interesting. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate may have a lower mean and is certainly less volatile; secondly, for changes in the degree of price stickiness the results are not are clear cut as in the previous case, however, we can also observe that when such stickiness is high the inflation rate tends to display a somewhat larger mean and also higher volatility; and thirdly, it shows that the target values for inflation and the output gap (π^,x^), both crucially affect the dynamics of the economy in terms of average values and volatility of the endogenous variables --- e.g., the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility --- while in the linear case only the π^ does so (obviously, only affecting in this case the level of the endogenous variables). Moreover, the existence of endogenous cycles due to chaotic motion may raise serious questions about whether the old dictum of monetary policy (that the Central Bank should conduct policy with discretion instead of commitment) is not still very much in the business of monetary policy.Optimal monetary policy, Interest Rate Rules, Nonlinear Phillips Curve, Endogenous Fluctuations and Stabilization

Scattering from Solutions of Star Polymers

We calculate the scattering intensity of dilute and semi-dilute solutions of star polymers. The star conformation is described by a model introduced by Daoud and Cotton. In this model, a single star is regarded as a spherical region of a semi-dilute polymer solution with a local, position dependent screening length. For high enough concentrations, the outer sections of the arms overlap and build a semi-dilute solution (a sea of blobs) where the inner parts of the actual stars are embedded. The scattering function is evaluated following a method introduced by Auvray and de Gennes. In the dilute regime there are three regions in the scattering function: the Guinier region (low wave vectors, q R << 1) from where the radius of the star can be extracted; the intermediate region (1 << q R << f^(2/5)) that carries the signature of the form factor of a star with f arms: I(q) ~ q^(-10/3); and a high wavevector zone (q R >> f^(2/5)) where the local swollen structure of the polymers gives rise to the usual q^(-5/3) decay. In the semi-dilute regime the different stars interact strongly, and the scattered intensity acquires two new features: a liquid peak that develops at a reciprocal position corresponding to the star-star distances; and a new large wavevector contribution of the form q^(-5/3) originating from the sea of blobs.Comment: REVTeX, 12 pages, 4 eps figure

Control of chaotic dynamics in an OLG economic model

WOS:000273142000019 (Nº de Acesso Web of Science)This paper deals with the control of chaotic economic motion. We show that very complicated dynamics arising, e.g., from an overlapping generations model (OLG) with production and an endogenous intertemporal decision between labour and leisure, which produces chaos, can in fact be controlled with relative simplicity. The aperiodic and very complicated motion that stems from this model can be subject to control by small perturbations in its parameters and turned into a stable steady state or into a regular cycle. Therefore, the system can be controlled without changing of its original properties. To perform the control of the totally unstable equilibrium (both eigenvalues with modulus greater than unity) in this economic model we apply the pole-placement technique, developed by Romeiras, Grebogi, Ott and Dayawansa (1992). The application of control methods to chaotic economic dynamics may raise serious reservations, at least on mathematical and logical grounds, to some recent views on economics which have argued that economic policy becomes useless in the presence of chaotic motion (and thus, that the performance of the economic system cannot be improved by public intervention, i.e., that the amplitude of cycles can not be controlled or reduced). In fact, the fine tuning of the system (that is, the control) can be performed without having to rely only on infinitesimal accuracy in the perturbation to the system, because the control can be performed with larger or smaller perturbations, but neither too large (because these would lead to a different fixed point of the system, therefore modifying its original nature), nor too small because the control becomes too inefficient

Chaotic Dynamics in Optimal Monetary Policy

There is by now a large consensus in modern monetary policy. This consensus has been built upon a dynamic general equilibrium model of optimal monetary policy as developed by, e.g., Goodfriend and King (1997), Clarida et al. (1999), Svensson (1999) and Woodford (2003). In this paper we extend the standard optimal monetary policy model by introducing nonlinearity into the Phillips curve. Under the specific form of nonlinearity proposed in our paper (which allows for convexity and concavity and secures closed form solutions), we show that the introduction of a nonlinear Phillips curve into the structure of the standard model in a discrete time and deterministic framework produces radical changes to the major conclusions regarding stability and the efficiency of monetary policy. We emphasize the following main results: (i) instead of a unique fixed point we end up with multiple equilibria; (ii) instead of saddle--path stability, for different sets of parameter values we may have saddle stability, totally unstable equilibria and chaotic attractors; (iii) for certain degrees of convexity and/or concavity of the Phillips curve, where endogenous fluctuations arise, one is able to encounter various results that seem intuitively correct. Firstly, when the Central Bank pays attention essentially to inflation targeting, the inflation rate has a lower mean and is less volatile; secondly, when the degree of price stickiness is high, the inflation rate displays a larger mean and higher volatility (but this is sensitive to the values given to the parameters of the model); and thirdly, the higher the target value of the output gap chosen by the Central Bank, the higher is the inflation rate and its volatility.Comment: 11 page

A proposal of sensitive indicators of the rehabilitation nursing care of people in the surgical process, to be included in the ontology of aging

Given the complex surgical scenario observed today, it is necessary to change the urgent definition of a specific ontology, especially in terms of aging. The interventions of the Specialist Nurse in Rehabilitation Nursing to the person in the surgical process are primordial for the maintenance of the functional capacities, prevention of complications and impediment of incapacities. However, it is necessary to provide individualized and fostered care in a practice of excellence, and the consequent organized reading of records of an aging ontology for decision making on rehabilitation indicators. Method: a systematic review of the literature was carried out using the EBSCO host (MEDLINE with Full Text, CINAHL Plus with Full Text and MedicLatina), using the PI [C] O method, and 11 articles were selected. Results: 41 indicators were identified to be included in the ontology classes of aging: pain control, patient and family education, support and communication, reduction of postoperative complications, gain of functionality, restoration of physical function, mobility, multidisciplinary intervention and the frequency of interventions. Conclusion: it is considered that it was imperative to identify sensitive indicators for rehabilitation nursing care, based on scientific evidence and thus provide an opportunity for nurses to reflect on their daily practices and conduct their actions towards excellence in care, to propose a set of 41 classes internationally on the ontology of aging

Contributions to the ontology of aging, the sensitive indicators of rehabilitation nursing care, in terms of self-care, in people with respiratory disorders

With the increase in the average life expectancy, the appearance of chronic diseases and, in particular, in the respiratory forum and its disadvantages in the autonomy and self-care of patients, brought an important paradigm for health care and, in particular, rehabilitation nursing, with implications for the development of ontologies of aging. Thus, it is imperative to systematize them in scientifically measurable indicators to demonstrate the benefit that rehabilitation nursing brings to improve patients' quality of life, thus ensuring excellence. Each area of scientific health should contribute to the construction of aging ontology. Objective: to identify indicators sensitive to nursing care of rehabilitation, in terms of self-care, in relation to those with respiratory pathology, to be integrated into the ontology of aging. Methods: A systematic review of the literature was performed using the EBSCO (full-text MEDLINE, CINAHL, Full-Text Plus, British Nursing Index), using the PI [C] O method with 6 emergent articles. Results: A total of 20 indicators were identified, including: Ability to perform activities, increase physical and functional independence, symptom management, reduction of complications, increase in quality of life, which can be allocated as a proposal for classes of the aging ontology. Conclusion: Knowledge of indicators sensitive to nursing care recognition of the importance of rehabilitation nursing in increasing self-care and autonomy for people with respiratory pathology, and research in this area is fundamental for its effectiveness and efficiency, and its integration in the ontologies of aging is fundamental